Is this disc bounce important? Inquiring minds want to know. The disc bounced more on the carpet then it did on the grass. This was all well and good, but something had caught my attention during the testing. Ray had expected a close to even split with a slight edge to tails also. Ray came back with the observation that the data was much better behaved and the results were closer to what he expected. This data showed a slight tendency towards landing heads. It was close but the data wasn’t giving me the answer I wanted. I repeated the test procedure out in my yard and sent the data off to Ray for assessment. This is what makes them different from radio talk show hosts and conspiracy theorists. There’s an interesting thing about researchers, good researchers keep looking for the answer even after they find one they like. I got the answer I wanted, but it was too good. So the data distribution was a bit odd and in addition, Ray felt the probability for a tails result was much higher than he expected. If the differences in the groups are near the Gaussian Distribution, then you can use basic statistics to make statements about your confidence in your conclusions given the data. In most natural phenomena there is an expected variability in the groups, something called a Gaussian (Normal) Distribution or bell curve. You can compare the subgroups to each other, which can give you a more complete understanding of the data than just looking at the overall heads/tails ratio for the 500 flips. This is the very reason probability tests are sometimes done in smaller subgroups. The heads/tails variations between the 10 groups of 50 flips seemed a bit too skewed for his comfort. I sent the data off to Ray for a confidence assessment and he sent back a warning that the data seemed a bit odd. The data strongly supported my contention that the disc lands more often on tails then it does on heads. The results far exceeded my expectations. I recorded the data in 10 groups of 50 tosses per Ray’s suggested testing procedure. I spent the next two hours flipping a disc in my living room. So I then asked the fateful question, “Can I do the test indoors on carpet?” Would it yield the same results? Like a good son, Ray said yes. The prospect of standing out in freezing weather and flipping a disc 500 times was not appealing to me. The temperature was still hovering around freezing. I looked out the window and could see the remains of the previous day’s sleet storm still on the ground. I asked Ray how many flips I needed to be confident of the results. He’s a good resource for questions about collecting meaningful test data. Ray works in the University of Washington’s Applied Physics Lab and has a degree in Applied Mathematics. Collecting the Dataīefore I went outside, I decided to make a quick call to my son, Ray (Sockeye #99). It shouldn’t take more than 5 minutes to accomplish, then its back inside where it’s warm and back to the story. Fortunately it’s a quick and easy test to perform I’ll just go out in my yard, flip the disc a couple of times and tally the results. It’s kind of a bold statement to say the disc lands upside down more often than not. This means that when presented with the offer to call the flip, it makes sense to call “tails” for a single flip or “even” on a double flip. My suspicions are that the disc has a greater probability of landing on tails (face down). I am also of the opinion that the disc flip is not unbiased as to being heads or tails. Otherwise, you’re relying on your opponent to make that decision in your favor. So naturally, the best way to insure your team receives the pull is to win the pre-game disc flip and elect to receive. Anyone who knows me knows that I believe that the team receiving the opening pull tends to win more games than chance would seem to allow.
Heads or tail coin flip how to#
I was writing an article on Ultimate strategies (part of Paul’s How to Build a Championship Ultimate Team series) and I came to the part of the story on whether it’s better to pull or receive to open the game.
0 kommentar(er)
